It is best illustrated by looking in depth at one of the themes that we have identified
as being a major influence on the world scene for the 1990's and examining the affect
this theme may have on financial markets and hence your investment returns.

Always in our sights are the major economies, we look at likely social and political developments and the impact of technological innovation. We spend considerable time building up this big-picture view of the world, looking at a range of possible scenarios.

We ultimately decide on a County view and then we work systematically down from this very broad perspective translating these top-down views into more specific economic and market forecasts. This is an analytical process; trying to identify those profound structural changes in global economies and societies, seeing what effects are likely to filter down and in time affect the value of ordinary investments.

In the end our conclusions ultimately influence the choice and balance of "assets" that make up the portfolios of the funds in which you invest.

The key is to try and identify these themes ahead of the market in general.

The clash of ideas ...

The tearing down of the "Berlin Wall" effectively brought to an end the clash between democracy and communism. That event however did not mean the end of the struggle between ideas about how people should live and how countries should be organised and governed.

Our analysis suggests that the contest between "globalisation" (open, competitive, laissez faire, unregulated) and "tribalism" (regulated, inward looking, protectionist) is now a powerful force in global economics and society.

First and foremost, "globalisation" is a mindset. It represents a preparedness to take risks, to adopt new ideas to embrace the free market and the competition this involves between nations and between people.

By contrast, "tribalism" represents the desire to preserve the status quo. Usually it finds its expression in economic nationalism and protectionism, opposition to the free market and a lack of commitment to cooperation between nations. In its milder form "tribalism" can result in a Japan quietly and covertly resisting foreign entrants to its markets.

In its extreme form, "tribalism" results in the tragedies that have befallen the Balkan's and parts of the former Soviet Union.

The consequences of
"Globalisation" and "Tribalism" ...

Globalisation, largely driven by economic rationalism and the force of technology promises faster growth in incomes and wealth, more rapid dissemination of information and ultimately greater freedom of choice for people.

Social and political alignment have brought into the free international economy an unprecedented number of nations and people. Just witness the economic reforms in Latin America, China and India over recent times.

Despite its obvious appeal, there are some difficult consequences in the drive towards globalisation. Globalisation demands openly competitive conditions, both between and within economies. While there is an implicit assumption the overall standards of living will improve as a result, globalisation is not concerned with issues of wealth distribution and what could be termed "Social Justice".

In its purest form globalisation can create inequalities which can raise social tensions, weaken the authority of national governments and undermine the sovereignty of countries.

It is precisely such anxieties that lie at the heart of the appeal of US presidential candidates such as Pat Buchanan and Ross Perot who both ran for president in 1992. In almost all countries around the world there are people who share their "tribalist" ideas. It is by no means a foregone conclusion that globalisation will prevail given the fears that it can arouse, Nevertheless, on balance, at County we believe that globalisation will eventually prevail.

This victory will not come about smoothly, because the dislocating effects of globalisation will provide opportunities for political leaders and groups to encourage fear and anxiety in an effort to preserve the status quo.

Despite this however, in our analysis, globalisation will almost certainly prevail because governments and their citizens will be forced down that path. Countries which offer less regulated business environments, levy lower taxes etc, will attract new business, new capital, new jobs and will force others to follow. They will be compelled to follow the path that offers the best prospect for rising living standards and freedom for the greatest number.

For international societies at large, the acceptance of globalisation will bring about a world where we will see a greater convergence of incomes, lifestyles and expectations across the great continents of Europe, North America, Asia and Latin America.

Globalisation and the value of your investment ...

If, as we envisage, this theme comes to fruition, investors will be significant beneficiaries. A global economy, characterised by the free flow of goods and services between nations and mobile labour, will have the advantage of low "inflation" and sustainable economic growth.

There will be a great expansion in the number of investment opportunities as many more nations and regions confidently join the international economy creating an unprecedented level of global wealth. This is fertile ground for financial assets such as the "shares" and " and "fixed interest" assets in which you invest through County.